Il Giappone sulla strada per Olduvai
Il Giappone sulla strada per Olduvai
La teoria di Olduvai è stata elaborata da Richard Duncan nell’ormai lontano 1989 e ipotizza che la civiltà industriale, qui definita dalla produzione elettrica pro-capite, avrà una durata di vita pari a cento anni: 1930-2030. Secondo Duncan, il surplus energetico che ha consentito lo sviluppo industriale globale ha già smesso di crescere e vedrà presto una rapida discesa, fino al ritorno ad una situazione di equilibrio energetico con le risorse naturali. Olduvai è il luogo, in Tanzania, considerato la culla della civiltà umana.
La teoria è stata accusata di catastrofismo e neomalthusianesimo, anche per il legame energia-popolazione e la previsione di un crash di quest’ultima in seguito al crollo della produzione elettrica. Ma l’ipotesi ritorna inevitabilmente alla mente quando si legge cosa sta succedendo in Giappone. Il Seattle Times, riportando un bell’articolo del Los Angeles Times, titola: “Il Giappone alle prese con un medioevo del XXI secolo”.
La produzione elettrica giapponese, per la chiusura delle centrali nucleari, ha subito un brusco taglio del 30%. Nove raffinerie di petrolio sono rimaste danneggiate, e al momento il 30% dei distributori di carburante di Tokio non ha nulla da vendere. La capacità di raffinazione sta tornando alla normalità, ma il problema è che la domanda di carburanti è quasi triplicata a causa dell’emergenza che ha colpito mezzo Paese. Le autorità locali chiedono carburante con persino più disperazione di quanto chiedano cibo o acqua o medicine.
Tokio sembra così avviarsi sulla strada per Olduvai e confortare la narrazione di Duncan. Le fabbriche chiudono a rotazione per mancanza di energia, e perché i dipendenti non hanno modo di recarsi al lavoro; le luci in casa si spengono alle 9 di sera, e lo skyline della metropoli è costellato da macchie di buio; gli eventi sportivi sono rimandati a data da destinarsi, i rifiuti si affastellano agli angoli delle strade perché i camion non hanno gasolio per effettuare la raccolta; i giornali dedicano intere pagine agli orari dei blackouts zona per zona. “E’ abbastanza buio da essere anche un pochino spaventoso, e per la mia generazione è impensabile avere scarsità di elettricità“, dice un ragazzo. Secondo un ingegnere della compagnia elettrica intervistato in forma anonima dal Los Angeles Times, tale situazione potrebbe durare anche un anno.
Tokio sta lentamente diventando una wasteland. Pian piano, senza troppo rumore, pochi alla volta, i cittadini se ne vanno al sud in cerca di un posto migliore. Incluso, a quanto pare, Masataka Shimizu, presidente della Tepco di cui non si hanno più notizie e che si sospetta fuggito dal Paese. Mentre alle decine di migliaia di contadini profughi della zona intorno a Fukushima si comincia a spiegare, con tatto, che forse non potranno mai più mettere piede sulla terra che i loro padri hanno coltivato per millenni. Ma sembra che al momento rifiutino ostinatamente di afferrare il concetto.
Los Angeles Times
Japan copes with 21st-century dark age
TOKYO The first pitch of Japan's baseball season has been pushed back so people don't waste gasoline driving to games. When the season does start, most night games will be switched to daytime so as not to squander electricity. There will be no extra innings.
Tokyo's iconic electronic billboards have been switched off. Trash is piling up in many northern cities because garbage trucks don't have gasoline. Public buildings go unheated. Factories are closed, in large part because of rolling blackouts and because employees can't drive to work with empty tanks.
This is what happens when a 21st-century, technologically sophisticated country runs critically low on energy. The March 11 earthquake and tsunami have thrust much of Japan into an unaccustomed dark age that could drag on for up to a year.
"It is dark enough to be a little scary. ... To my generation, it is unthinkable to have a shortage of electricity," said Naoki Takano, 25, a pony-tailed salesman at Tower Records in Tokyo's Shibuya district, normally infused by neon lights.
The store has switched off its elevators and a big screen that used to play music videos late into the night, a situation Takano expects to last until summer.
Japan's energy crisis is taking place on two fronts: The explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear compound and the shutdown of other nuclear plants owned by Tokyo Electric Power have reduced the supply of electricity to the capital by nearly 30 percent.
Nine oil refineries also were damaged, including one in Chiba, near Tokyo, which burned spectacularly, creating shortages of gasoline and heating oil. Gasoline lines in the northern part of Honshu, Japan's main island, extend for miles. About 30 percent of gas stations in the Tokyo area are closed because they have nothing to sell.
Economists say it is difficult to parse out how much is the result of actual scarcity and how much comes from hoarding.
"We are close to getting back to the gasoline capacity we had before the earthquake, but we are hearing demand has been two- to threefold the normal volume," said Takashi Kono of the policy-planning division in the natural-resources and fuel department at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. "With that much demand, of course we're looking at a shortage."
Energy analysts expect the gasoline crisis to ease in coming weeks as supply lines reopen and panic buying subsides. The electricity shortage, however, is likely to linger for months and might worsen as the weather warms up and people try to turn on their air conditioners.
Tokyo's Asahi Shimbun newspaper on Tuesday quoted an unnamed senior official of Tokyo Electric, which serves 28 million customers, as saying rolling blackouts could last a year.
Electricity is the talk of the town. Newspaper readers pore over detailed schedules of rolling blackouts. Many movie theaters are closed, companies have switched off unnecessary lights and advertising, restricted use of elevators and shortened working hours.
For now, gasoline shortages are disrupting both daily life and relief efforts.
In Akita, 280 miles north of Tokyo, the few gas stations that are open have lines extending as long as a mile and limit purchases to 4 gallons. It would hardly be worth the wait, except that people want gas for emergencies for example, if they need to flee radiation from the crippled nuclear plant.
The lack of gasoline for delivery trucks has aggravated shortages of key products, especially milk, bread, batteries, toilet paper and mineral water.
Some left homeless by the quake and tsunami have cars but can't use them, while relatives who otherwise would rescue them don't have the gas to reach coastal areas. People trying to flee the dangerous spewing nuclear plant in Fukushima were unable to do so because their gas tanks were empty.
Across Japan, a sympathetic public has been energized to help earthquake victims with collections of clothing, blankets and food. But there is no way to distribute the aid to victims.
The electricity shortage will be even harder to fix.
Besides the damage to the nuclear reactors, two thermal power plants were knocked out by the earthquake. And the energy grid in Japan is split in two, a peculiarity that means the energy-starved north cannot borrow from the south.
On the baseball diamond, Japan's Pacific League, which has a team in Sendai near the quake epicenter, has pushed back its season opener until April 12 to allow for rebuilding and energy conservation. The Central League has delayed its opener by four days, until March 29. Both agreed to avoid night games and extra innings.
If there is a silver lining to the crisis, energy analysts say, it will be an awakening about energy efficiency and conservation.
"It is going to be a different world," said David Von Hippel, an energy analyst with the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, a think tank. He predicts the nuclear accident at Fukushima will turn Japanese public opinion against nuclear power and force a closer look at energy efficiency.
"They'd done a very good job at improving efficiency in the first two oil shocks in 1974 and 1979, but since 2000, the curve has been pretty flat," he said.
With energy twice as expensive as in the United States, Japan is a world leader in energy-efficient appliances, but homes often are poorly insulated and bright lights are kept on late into the night for advertising.
"You see these all-night vending machines lit up 24/7," Von Hippel said.
Yoko Ogata, 68, of Akita, said young Japanese will have to take a cue from the generation that remembers the deprivation after World War II.
"The young people take it all for granted," Ogata said. "They don't know how to cope with shortages the way that we do."
The scope of the disaster does appear to be motivating the younger generation to take action. Students at Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo organized a campaign for earlier bedtimes to save electricity.
"Lights out at 9 p.m.!" the students wrote on Mixi, Japan's popular social-networking site. If "I go to bed three hours early, and I did this for a week, that means I would have saved 21 hours almost a full day of electricity and I can pass that energy on."