|
https://now.mmedia.me The calm before the storm Lebanon sits on shifting tectonic plates, and a political volcano is about to erupt. The repercussions of the Sunni awakening in Syria and Iraq, the increasingly defiant positions of Iran and its Shiite-Alawite proxies, the chaos in Egypt, the economic situation in Israel and the changing US foreign policy in the Middle East all indicate that a war looms on the horizon for the most vulnerable country in the region. For now, the situation in Lebanon remains calm. How long before internal divisions, fueled by regional tensions, reach the boiling point?
Iran To believe that Iran simply supports the Shiite-Alawite so-called resistance against Israel based on common ideological beliefs fails to recognize Iran’s historical ambitions. Tehran plans to regain its position as a commanding player not only on the regional level but on the international scene, using its surrogates in the region as bargaining chips to negotiate the future of its nuclear program. Through a nuclear bomb Iran is hoping to get a seat at the VIP table of international politics. With US President Barack Obama’s re-election, two things are clear to the Iranian leadership: First, the US will not attack Iran’s nuclear sites, nor will it allow Israel to do so. Second, negotiations with the 5 + 1 countries will resume soon, and Iran will have to lay its cards on the table – and there is nothing like a war between Israel and Hezbollah to guarantee Iran’s winning hand in this game. As Hezbollah’s backer, Iran will likely negotiate a ceasefire in return for advancements in its nuclear program.
Syria What better way to divert attention from the massacres committed by the Syrian regime than by egging on a war between Israel and Hezbollah? To finally crush the popular uprising against decades of his family’s rule, Bashar al-Assad has to increase the brutality of his approach. To operate with complete impunity, he needs a diversion, and the best possible gift is another war – all the better on someone else’s turf. With the world suffering from Syria Fatigue Syndrome, a war between Hezbollah and Israel would be a welcome distraction for the international press. Political and diplomatic pressures would then shift to Israel and Iran. World leaders would push for the war in Lebanon to end, and Bashar al-Assad would get the chance he needs to crush the rebellion against him in darkness as the international community concentrates on yet another war in the Middle East.
Hezbollah As the son of Iran and Syria, Hezbollah will do whatever Tehran and Damascus want. Yet the party has its own reasons for going to war and further consolidating its grip on power within Lebanon. On the regional level, Hezbollah is the natural ally of the Syrian regime and its sole inheritor of heavy weapons – including its chemical arsenal. A war with Israel would justify the acquisition of such weapons and reinforce the party’s position as the legitimate protector of Lebanese sovereignty. On the domestic level, the recent political maneuvering by Hezbollah and its allies shows the party has no real intention of holding parliamentary elections as scheduled. The main fear is that the pro-Syrian March 8 coalition, led by Hezbollah, will lose its majority in parliament to the pro-Western March 14 coalition. Such a loss for Hezbollah would mean no free hand in governing the country anymore. A war with Israel would surely delay the elections until further notice.
Israel The elections in Israel indicate that the reelected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a different agenda than the one he publically ran on. Internally, the PM is considered responsible for the declining economy and the highest inflation rate in six years. Internationally, pressure is mounting against Israel to stop building illegal settlements in Arab East Jerusalem and the West Bank and to halt appropriation of Palestinian land. Netanyahu intends to proceed with the illegal expansion in the occupied West Bank, with many in his cabinet arguing that it is the biblical land of Judea and Samaria, which was promised to Moses as a homeland for the Jews thousands of years ago. To ease local and international pressure, Netanyahu needs to divert attention away from his land grabbing and budget deficit. For his diversion to succeed, he needs unconditional support from the US. Netanyahu knows that the second Obama term will be different from the first because the US president doesn’t have reelection to worry about. Only by portraying Israel as a victim can Netanyahu bring his country back to the forefront of President Obama’s foreign policy, and there is nothing like a war with a US-designated terrorist organization to remind the American public and policy makers that the Jewish State is a target in a hostile Middle East. Israel will point out that, with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the growing Iranian influence in the region, it’s the strongest ally America has in the Levant. If a war breaks out, pro-Israel lobbyists in DC will ensure an increase in political and financial support to Netanyahu’s newly formed government. At this point, the Netanyahu’s best two candidates to enter into a war against are Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel knows that Hezbollah has lost much of the support and legitimacy it enjoyed in Lebanon after the July War in 2006. Now more than half of the Lebanese population openly opposes Hezbollah. From Israel’s perspective, without proper logistical, political and public support, Hezbollah is the weakest and best candidate. President Obama’s first term in office showed that the US no longer wanted an active role in Middle East politics; US troops withdrew from Iraq, the administration disengaged from Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and played a passive role in the Arab Spring uprisings, particularly the Syrian uprising. While the US becomes less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, the strategic importance of the region becomes less relevant, and that’s when regional players use local proxies to settle scores.
|
_0509_-_Assalto_copti.jpg){kind=link}